Tonnage Fell: Check the Whole Trip Before You Quote

Tonnage fell in August. Check empty miles and waiting time before treating a national index as your rate.

ATA's August truck-tonnage index fell 0.5% from July and 1.6% from a year earlier. The preliminary, seasonally adjusted reading was 112.7, with 2015 equal to 100. The September 22 release also revised July's monthly decline to 1.2%. ATA says its indices mainly reflect contract freight, not traditional spot freight. That distinction matters before using this headline to judge a load offer.

What does a tonnage index tell an owner-operator?

It describes a surveyed group's freight weight over time. It does not give the rate available for your next load, the number of trucks waiting in a particular market or your customer's next tender. A national reading can be useful background while still being too broad to settle a specific dispatch decision. Start by writing down the question you actually need answered: whether to accept a load, reposition, seek more regular work or revise a customer conversation.

Keep that question separate from the headline. A lower index does not automatically make every offer poor; a higher index would not make every offer profitable. For a small fleet, the practical task is to connect an available load with the equipment, time and costs it requires. The figures below are a worksheet example created by TSN, not market rates or a forecast.

Compare the whole trip, not just loaded miles

Imagine a hypothetical offer paying $1,800 for 600 loaded miles, with another 150 empty miles needed to reach the pickup. Dividing the payment only by loaded miles gives $3.00 per mile. Dividing the same payment by all 750 miles gives $2.40 per mile. Neither calculation subtracts fuel, labor, maintenance, tolls or any other cost. The difference comes entirely from changing the denominator, not from a change in the offered payment.

Use your own confirmed distances and payment terms instead of adopting those example numbers. Identify whether the quoted amount includes a fuel surcharge and which extra services are included. Keep unconfirmed accessorial payments outside confirmed revenue. If the next trip requires more empty travel, add that scenario separately rather than assuming a convenient return load will be waiting.

Put the clock beside the mileage

Two offers with the same distance and payment can occupy different amounts of equipment time. Write down the pickup appointment, expected loading window, delivery appointment and any uncertainty that the customer has actually communicated. Label estimates as estimates. Do not turn an optimistic loading assumption into an apparent promise from a facility or broker.

A simple comparison sheet can include confirmed revenue, total planned miles and estimated occupied hours in separate columns. If the hours are uncertain, calculate more than one clearly labeled scenario. That does not predict how the trip will unfold; it reveals which assumption drives the decision. Keep legal operating limits and the actual driver's availability as constraints, not quantities to stretch until the arithmetic looks attractive.

Ask questions that can change the decision

Before committing, identify missing information that matters to this particular movement. Is the appointment confirmed? What loading assistance is expected? Does the equipment meet the customer's stated requirements? Who can approve an extra charge, and how is that approval documented? These are suggested commercial questions, not a statement that every shipper uses the same terms.

Prioritize answers that could change the outcome. A missing appointment or equipment requirement may matter more than another decimal place in a national index. When a term remains unresolved, preserve that uncertainty on the sheet. A blank or an explicit question is more useful than a made-up number that makes an incomplete offer look comparable to a confirmed one.

Track your own experience without overreading it

After the trip, compare actual miles, recorded time and confirmed payment with the assumptions. Keep the date, route and equipment category with the record. One unusually quick loading visit should not become the default for every future trip, just as one disappointing offer should not become a conclusion about the entire freight market.

Review several comparable trips before changing a standing assumption. Where records are sparse, say so. Separate an observation from an explanation: you can record that waiting time rose without claiming to know why it rose. This preserves useful first-party evidence for a later conversation with a customer or dispatcher.

A short checklist for the next offer

• Record the confirmed payment and what it includes.
• Include planned empty miles as well as loaded miles.
• Keep time estimates and unresolved terms visible.
• Compare the worksheet with actual results afterward.
• Use national indicators as context, not a personalized rate quote.

For the next operating-market update, follow Truck Savers News. Illustrative warehouse photograph: Robert So / Pexels 18468412, used under the Pexels license; it does not depict the survey sample. This worksheet does not set a recommended rate or promise a margin.

Original source

American Trucking Associations, August tonnage release, September 22, 2026.