Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs — New Import Surcharges Create Uncertainty

Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under IEEPA on Feb 20. Administration responded with 15% temporary surcharge under Section 122 (expires July 24). Freight capacity tightening (dry van, reefer), spot market rising with diesel.

Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs Under IEEPA

On February 20, 2026, the United States Supreme Court ruled in a 6-3 decision in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump that the President does not have the authority to unilaterally impose broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

This decision invalidated several previously imposed tariffs, including:

• Country-specific "Reciprocal" tariffs
• "Trafficking and Immigration" tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China
• Geopolitical surcharges on India and Brazil
• 25% "Border" Tariffs on Mexico and Canada
• 10-15% "Reciprocal Caps" on the UK, Germany, and France

What About Refunds?

While the Supreme Court struck down these tariffs, it did not address the refund process for the substantial amounts previously collected.

The matter of refunds has been remanded to lower courts. The U.S. Court of International Trade ordered Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on March 4, 2026, to begin processing refunds for all importers who paid these duties.

New Temporary Surcharge Under Section 122

In response to the Supreme Court's decision, the administration swiftly invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to implement a new temporary import surcharge:

• Initially set at 10% ad valorem, effective February 24, 2026
• Raised to 15% on February 21, 2026
• Valid for a period of up to 150 days
• Expires July 24, 2026, unless Congress takes action to extend it

Which Tariffs Are Still in Effect?

It's crucial to note that the Supreme Court's decision did NOT impact tariffs imposed under other authorities, such as:

• Section 232 tariffs: Steel and aluminum
• Section 301 tariffs: Chinese goods
• De minimis suspension: Duty-free treatment for low-value imports

These tariffs remain in effect.

Average Effective U.S. Tariff Rate

• Before IEEPA ruling: ~17%
• Immediately after ruling: ~9%
• With 10% Section 122 surcharge: ~10.3%
• With 15% Section 122 surcharge: (estimated ~11-12%)
• If surcharge expires (July 24): ~5.6-7.7%

Impact on Freight and Capacity

The freight market in 2026 is experiencing a structural shift across various modes:

🚛 Trucking Freight

The U.S. trucking industry is moving from a downturn to a phase of tightening and stabilization in 2026:

• U.S. freight volumes are projected to increase approximately 2.3% in 2026
• Excess truckload capacity, which has contributed to a freight recession, is expected to diminish throughout the year due to a challenging operating environment and new regulatory measures
• This reduction in capacity could lead to higher freight rates and a more stable market by the end of 2026

Spot Rate Projections

• Dry van: Peak year-over-year growth of 6% in Q4 2026
• Reefer: Peak growth of 5% in Q3 2026

📦 Ocean Freight

2026 will be a turning point for global trade and the container industry:

• Global container fleet capacity will reach approximately 32.3 million TEU, with a fleet growth rate of 3.2%
• This oversupply will exert downward pressure on freight rates
• Global average spot rates are forecast to fall 25%
• Long-term rates will fall 10% in 2026
• Carriers will likely employ strategies such as blank sailings to manage capacity

✈️ Air Freight

The global air freight market is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026:

• Global air freight demand is forecast to grow approximately 2.7% year-over-year
• Asia Pacific exports and intra-Asia Pacific trade will be primary drivers of this expansion

Tightening Capacity in Dry Van and Reefer

As the spring produce season progresses, demand in the southern U.S. is driving rates up:

• Southern produce regions are generating strong demand
• Open-deck (flatbed) availability is shrinking
• Frost laws in northern states are affecting capacity
• Micro-fulfillment and dark stores trend is changing distribution patterns

FedEx and UPS — Rate Increases

Both FedEx and UPS have announced rate increases for 2026, further pressuring shipping costs for shippers.

"Front-Loading Surge" Before July 24

With the Section 122 surcharge scheduled to expire on July 24, 2026, many shippers are accelerating inventory imports before that date to avoid potential future policy changes.

This is creating a "front-loading surge" that is straining freight capacity across all modes.

What Should Carriers Do?

For carriers and owner-operators, this environment presents opportunities and risks:

✅ Opportunities

• Rising rates: As capacity tightens, spot rates will rise — especially in dry van and reefer
• Less competition: Excess capacity is diminishing, reducing competition for loads
• More negotiating power: With tighter capacity, you have more leverage to negotiate better rates

❌ Risks

• Expensive diesel: At over $5/gallon, margins are tight if you can't pass the cost on
• Uncertainty: Changes in tariffs can affect import volumes and freight patterns
• Post-July competition: If the surcharge expires and imports drop, capacity may loosen again

Maintenance = Profitability

In a tight market, downtime costs you money. One day off the road could mean losing a high-paying load.

At The Truck Savers™, we offer:

• FREE road simulator inspection — we detect problems before they leave you stranded
• Computerized alignment — improves fuel consumption and reduces tire wear
• Preventive maintenance: Suspensions, brakes, diesel oil change, power steering, tires
• Fast service: We know time is money — we get you back on the road quickly

Call us: (713) 455-5566 (Houston, TX)

Visit our online store: store.thetrucksavers.com

Sources: SCOTUSblog, Tax Foundation, FreightWaves, ACT Research, Xeneta