FedEx Freight CEO Says Market Recovery Is Real, But Not Straight

FedEx Freight’s CEO says freight rates are improving after a long downturn, but diesel, inflation and trade uncertainty still make the recovery uneven.

FedEx Freight CEO John Smith says the freight market is showing signs of improvement, but carriers should not expect the recovery to move in a straight line.

In an interview with Transport Topics, Smith pointed to “green shoots” as rates improved through the first five months of 2026. The rebound follows more than three and a half years of a difficult downcycle that pressured carriers, owner-operators and freight networks across the country.

The positive signal is that both spot and contract rates have been moving higher. That can help fleets rebuild margins after a long period of weak demand, excess capacity and tight cash flow. For drivers and small carriers, stronger rates can eventually mean better load opportunities and more room to cover fuel, equipment, insurance and maintenance costs.

But Smith warned that the recovery still faces real risks. Inflation worries, possible interest-rate pressure, higher diesel prices tied to geopolitical conflict and ongoing trade uncertainty could all slow or complicate the market’s rebound.

FedEx Freight is now operating as a stand-alone carrier and remains the largest LTL carrier on Transport Topics’ sector list. The company’s scale gives it a clear view of freight conditions, with hundreds of locations, thousands of service doors and a large equipment network.

For trucking businesses, the takeaway is cautious optimism. A market turn may be forming, but planning should stay disciplined: watch fuel costs, protect cash flow, price lanes carefully and avoid assuming that every rate increase means the downturn is fully over.

Resources for operators: Truck Savers for service, inspections and diesel maintenance support; and Go Green APU for idle-reduction, fuel-savings and APU information.