ATA's Spear Warns: Fuel Prices, Trade Policy, and Global Conflict Could Stall Trucking Recovery

ATA President at TMC: rising fuel, geopolitical instability, trade policy uncertainty threaten trucking recovery. SAF-Holland redesigned suspension slider to save weight.

Chris Spear (ATA) Warns About Threats to Trucking Recovery

At the Technology & Maintenance Council (TMC) conference in Nashville, Chris Spear, president of the American Trucking Associations (ATA), issued a clear warning:

"The trucking recovery we're seeing in 2026 is fragile. Three key factors could stop it cold: fuel prices, trade policy, and geopolitical instability."

The Three Main Risks

1. Fuel Prices: Diesel Above $5/Gallon

Diesel remains the largest operating expense for carriers (30-40% of total cost), and prices aren't dropping:

📊 Current Situation (March 2026)

National average price: $5.15/gallon (vs $4.50 in March 2025)
California: $5.80/gallon
Midwest: $4.95/gallon
East Coast: $5.25/gallon

Why Is It So Expensive?

Limited refinery production — several refineries closed in 2023-2025
Middle East conflict — uncertainty about crude oil supply
Russia sanctions — reduce global diesel supply
High global demand — recovering economies increase consumption

Impact on Carriers

Owner-operators with tight margins — a $0.50/gallon increase can eliminate all profit
Small fleets without fuel surcharge contracts — absorb the cost
Pressure to raise rates — but not all shippers accept

2. Trade Policy: Tariff and USMCA Uncertainty

U.S. trade policy is in constant flux, affecting international transport:

⚠️ Current Risks

USMCA renegotiation — some sectors pushing for changes that could restrict trade with Mexico
China tariffs — if intensified, reduce import volume (less cargo to haul from ports)
Tension with Europe — possible reciprocal tariffs affect agricultural exports (less backhaul for reefers)

Impact on Transport

International cargo volumes drop — less work on port corridors (LA, Long Beach, Houston)
Shippers seek alternative suppliers — can change established trade routes
Investment uncertainty — fleets delay equipment purchases due to lack of visibility

3. Geopolitical Instability: Global Conflicts

Conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia-Pacific have ripple effects:

🌍 How It Affects Transport

Volatile oil prices — each geopolitical crisis spikes crude prices
Supply chain disruption — truck components and parts take longer to arrive
Less infrastructure investment — governments prioritize military spending over roads
Export restrictions — some countries limit food/commodity exports

Technology as Solution: SAF-Holland and Weight Savings

Amid these challenges, the industry seeks operational efficiency. A standout example at TMC:

🔧 SAF-Holland Redesigns Suspension Slider

SAF-Holland, leading trailer component manufacturer, presented a new suspension slider design that reduces weight without sacrificing strength:

✅ Benefits of New Slider

Saves 50-75 lbs per trailer — allows more cargo or improved efficiency
Stronger material — fewer failures, longer lifespan
Simplified maintenance — easier and faster adjustment
Compatible with existing suspensions — retrofit possible on many models

💰 Economic Impact

More cargo = more revenue: 75 additional lbs can mean 1-2 extra pallets in some cases
Better fuel consumption: Less weight = less diesel burned
ROI in 1-2 years: Investment recovered with operational savings

What Can You Do As Carrier?

1. Optimize Your Fuel Consumption

With expensive diesel, every tenth of MPG counts:

Correct alignment: Reduces rolling resistance and improves consumption up to 5%
Optimal tire pressure: Underinflated tires increase diesel consumption
Controlled speed: At 65 mph vs 75 mph you can save 1-2 MPG
Preventive maintenance: Clean filters, current oil, efficient engine