Trucking Volumes Rise, Capacity Tightens: Is the Recovery Here?

ACT Research reports freight volumes hit a 4-year high in February 2026, while capacity continues to contract. Supply-demand balance reached its best level since 2021, but high diesel prices threaten optimism. Will rates finally rise or are we still waiting?

📈 Freight Volumes Hit 4-Year High

February 2026 marked a turning point for the trucking industry: ACT Research's For-Hire Trucking Volume Index reached its highest level since February 2022, according to data released March 24.

The index rose to 63.9 points (seasonally adjusted), compared to 58.4 in January. Any reading above 50 indicates growth — and 63.9 is a number we hadn't seen since before the 2023-2024 trucking recession.

Why did volumes rise?

According to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research:

"For-hire volumes are benefiting from slowing/contracting private fleet growth, putting loads into the for-hire market, even with the current absence of a broader freight demand recovery."

In other words: private fleets are shrinking (companies like Walmart, Amazon that have their own trucks), and those loads are coming back to for-hire carriers (owner-operators and small fleets). This inflates the numbers, but it does NOT mean there's more total freight — just that it's changing hands.

Additionally, the January winter storm that hit the Midwest, East Coast, and South created a freight backlog that was cleared in February. That temporary effect also pushed volumes higher.

📉 Capacity Keeps Falling — 11th Consecutive Month

On the supply side, ACT's Capacity Index fell slightly to 48.0 in February, from 48.4 in January. This marks the 11th consecutive month in contraction territory (below 50).

Translation: carriers are closing or shrinking fleets. The overcapacity that's been sinking rates since 2022 is finally disappearing.

Why is capacity shrinking?

• Profitability still sucks: Even with recent rate improvements, many fleets are still operating with negative or razor-thin margins
• FMCSA is eliminating illegal carriers: The massive campaign against chameleon carriers, ELD fraud, and ghost carriers is pulling thousands of operators out of the market
• Non-domiciled CDL restrictions: The new FMCSA rule on non-domiciled CDLs is further reducing the available driver pool
• New truck orders remain low: Although they rose slightly after the confirmation that EPA'27 will still happen, fleets are not investing aggressively in new capacity

⚖️ Supply-Demand Balance: Best in 4.5 Years

When you combine rising volumes + falling capacity, you get the best supply-demand balance since September 2021. ACT's index reached 63.9 in February, the highest level in 4.5 years.

In theory, this should translate to higher rates. Supply and demand are finally aligning in favor of carriers.

But…

Carter Vieth warns:

"The repeal of IEEPA tariffs and the expiration of §122 tariffs in 150 days should lower the effective tariff rate by roughly 10% and may help to trigger a restock. However, higher oil prices following the conflict with Iran have effectively negated any tariff benefit to consumers in the short term, potentially slowing economic (and freight volume) growth."

Translation: trade tariffs went down (which should boost the economy), but diesel jumped 30 cents in a week. That erases any benefit and could slow growth.

💸 Rates Rose in February… But Will It Last?

The ACT Trucking Pricing Index rose 5.3 points in February, thanks to winter storms that temporarily tightened capacity and created a backlog of urgent loads.

Overall, rates have improved in 2026 compared to 2024-2025. But the question is: is it sustainable?

• If diesel keeps rising, owner-operators will demand higher fuel surcharges — and some shippers will resist
• If capacity keeps falling (thanks to FMCSA and CDL restrictions), rates should keep rising
• But if the economy slows due to inflation and high oil prices, volumes could drop again

🚨 What Does This Mean For You?

If you're an owner-operator or small fleet:

✅ Good News:

• The market is finally turning in your favor after 2 years of pain
• Capacity is falling, which should push rates higher
• FMCSA is eliminating unfair competition (illegal carriers)

⚠️ Bad News:

• Diesel at $5.38/gallon is eating your margins faster than rates are rising
• The recovery is NOT massive — it's gradual and fragile
• There's still a lot of geopolitical uncertainty (Iran, tariffs, inflation)

🛠️ How to Capitalize on the Recovery (Without Waiting for Rates to Rise)

You can't control diesel prices or rates. But you CAN control your operating costs:

1. Reduce Your Diesel Consumption NOW

With diesel above $5/gallon, every gallon you save is GOLD. Here are 3 concrete ways:

• Professional alignment check: A misaligned truck loses up to 5% efficiency. If you burn 20,000 gallons/year, that's 1,000 gallons wasted = $5,000+/year. At The Truck Savers™ we have laser alignment computers.
• Free road simulator inspection: Problems in suspension, brakes, steering, or unbalanced tires make your truck burn more diesel. Our free inspection with road simulator detects 100+ failure points. No commitment.
• Go Green APU: If you leave the engine idling for climate control, you're burning 0.8 gal/hour ($4/hour with diesel at $5). An APU uses only 0.1 gal/hour. Savings: $8,000+/year. More info at gogreenapu.com.

2. Negotiate Fuel Surcharges Aggressively

With diesel at $5.38, a 10% fuel surcharge is NO LONGER enough. Renegotiate with your brokers and direct customers to ensure diesel increases are reflected in your rates.

3. Focus on Relationships, Not Just Load Boards

The best rates are NOT on public load boards. They're in direct relationships with reliable shippers and brokers. If you still depend on DAT/Truckstop for 80% of your loads, you're leaving money on the table.

🔮 What's Next?

Carter Vieth from ACT Research summarizes:

"While rate gains may ease as the weather improves, FMCSA nondomicile actions should tighten the driver supply further. And as private fleets contract, for-hire demand should improve solely on the return of market share that was ceded between 2022–2025."

Translation: the recovery is real, but slow. Don't expect a sudden boom. Expect gradual improvement through spring and summer 2026, as long as diesel doesn't hit $6+/gallon.

The market is turning. The question is: are you ready to capitalize on it?

Visit us at The Truck Savers™ (Houston or Monterrey) for a free inspection and alignment quote. Call (713) 455-5566.

Sources: ACT Research, Heavy Duty Trucking, Transport Topics, FreightWaves